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Thursday, December 29, 2011

Tropical Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 'Thane' poses danger to Tamilnadu & Andhra Pradesh

Tropical cyclone ‘Thane' in the south-west Bay of Bengal is at least 36 hours away from a landfall to the south of Chennai, likely over Pondicherry and neighbourhood, as suggested by a couple of international models.  It is raining in Chennai [not heavily] and there are reports of Cyclone crossing the land  - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane (IMD designation: BOB 05, JTWC designation: 06B, also known as Cyclone Thane) is the second cyclonic storm and the first storm to reach Severe Cyclonic Storm intensity during the 2011 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. Developing out of an area of low pressure on December 25, Thane organized into a tropical storm and eventually a Severe Cyclone thereafter. The system now poses a serious threat to the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, and their coasts have been set on high alert.

-the position of cyclone Thane @ 28.12.11 11 pm IST :
IMD reported on December 25 that a low-pressure area had organised itself into a depression over southeast Bay of Bengal, about 1000 km southeast of Chennai.Soon, it  was upgraded to a tropical cyclone, the depression intensified into a deep depression on December 26.[It was further upgraded to a Cyclonic Storm and named it 'Thane', making it the second cyclonic storm of the season.  The JTWC reported that windspeeds in the storm center have crossed 65 knots per hour, thus the storm is the first cyclonic storm of the 2011 season to reach Category 1 status in the SSHS hurricane scale, there after it is reported to have reached Very Severe Cyclonic Storm status.

Indian Meteorological Department issued  Port Warning ** no. Ten this morning @ 0530 hrs IST today [29th Dec 2011].  The report reads :
The very severe cyclonic storm ‘THANE’ over Southwest  Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 2330 hrs IST of Yesterday, the 28th December 2011 over southwest of Bengal near latitude 12.50N and longitude 84.00E, about 400 km East-southeast of Chennai.
Forecast:  The system is likely to move West-wards intensify further and cross North Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai close to Puducherry around morning of 30thDecember 2011. However as the cyclonic will come further close to the coast after 24 hours, there is a probability of slight weakening before landfall.   
Advice for hoisting Storm Warning Signals :  Great danger signal number Ten kept hoisted at Puducherry and Cuddalore ports, Great danger signal number Nine kept hoisted at Chennai and Ennore ports and Great danger signal number Eight kept hoisted at Nagapattinam ports. Local cautionary signal number Three kept hoisted at Pamban and Tuticorin ports.
Weather warning:
              1.  Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy falls likely to commence over North coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from today, the 29th December 2011. The intensity of the rainfall would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls from today, the 29th December 2011 and extend to North Interior Tamil Nadu.
             2.  Squally weather with wind speed reaching 50-60 Kmph likely to commence along off coastal districts of North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from today, the 29th December 2011.
             3.  Gale force wind with speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 125 kmph would prevail along off North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Coast at the time of landfall.
            4. Tidal wave with height 1.0 metres above astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Cuddalore, Villupuram and Nagapattinam districts of North Coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry at the time of storm crossing the coast.
Sea condition:  Sea will be very rough to high along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast from today, the 29th December 2011.
             Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea. Those who are out at sea are advised to return to the coast. Total suspension of fishing operation is advised.

Image as released by IMD – 29.12.11 @ 00:30 hrs.
The squally winds and the cyclonic storm are expected to cause extensive damage to thatched roof and huts, minor damage to power and communication line due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.
** The India Meteorological Department (through the area cyclone warning centres (ACWCs)/ cyclone warning centres (CWCs) maintains a port warning service by which the port officers are warned about disturbed weather likely to affect their ports.  In accordance with international procedure, ports are warned and advised to hoist "Signals" whenever adverse weather is expected over the ports for the oceanic areas, in which it is located due to the tropical cyclone. However, regional difference exists. 
The Port Warning consists of 11 signals - first two of which (signals No. I and II) indicate the existence of distant disturbed weather, the next eight (signals  III to X) indicate that the port itself is threatened by bad weather and the last one (signal No. XI) indicates that the communication with the ACWC/CWC had broken down and that in the opinion of the local Port Officer, there is danger of bad weather. Signals No. I and II are called Distant Signals and the rest Local signals. The ports where this system of signals is in use are called General ports.
With the threat of Cyclone ‘Thane’ State Governments of Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh are on high alert and are making arrangements to fore-warn and provide all assistance to the people of coastal areas.

With regards
S. Sampathkumar.  

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