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Monday, March 5, 2012

Elections to 5 States - Uttar Pradesh and Akilesh Yadav

It is going to be a week of election fervour – in Indian politics ‘youth’ is a misnomer – it could only mean the heir of a politician not necessarily young fellow.  Generally, the party leader makes his son the head of the Youth wing, making it a launching pad for his progress in political career.   If you have a finger in the pie of stock market, you would get awe-struck with its volatility – somebody described it as resembling a minefield – partly because of the  budget expectations and mostly because awaiting the results of Assembly elections of the 5 States.

The National Party planned to derive mileage from its youth leader but it appears tobe the other youth who is surging ahead.  In a carefully planted move, his wife contested the Firozbad Lok Sabha seat in 2009 but lost to Raj Babbar but the clan of the Senior, the son himself won from Kannuj. 

Elsewhere,  Vladimir Putin and his supporters are celebrating victory in Russian elections, that will give him a third presidential term after spending the last four years as the country's PM. There are reports that with  nearly all the ballots counted, he secured nearly 64% of the vote.  In 2000, Putin was elected president in first round and in 2004 he was re-elected.   In 2008, Putin became prime minister after his protege Dmitry Medvedev's landslide win in March presidential election; Now he has stood and won the third term as president, largely in tune with the exit polls.

5 Indian States went to polls recently – Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur and Uttar Pradesh – elections would become due in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh  later this year.  In the most populous state of UP, all  opinion polls indicate an hung assembly.  Exit polls have spoken but it will not quell the suspense about the outcome in UP. Predicting elections in India have been famously hazardous. Pollsters have often misread the mood of the silent majority, who don't wear their preferences on their sleeves. Tomorrow will be momentous for its decision on  who gets a five-year shot at power in Lucknow.  Counting of votes in the Assembly elections in the five states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa, considered “mini general elections”, will be taken up tomorrow.  The counting will begin at 0800 hours and first results are expected in an hour or two and all the results by evening. The results will decide the fate of candidates in a total of 690 assembly seats — 403 in UP, 117 seats in Punjab, 70 in Uttarakhand, 60 in Manipur and 40 in Goa.

The old warhorse Congress faces an uphill task in reviving its fortunes in UP though Rahul Gandhi campaigned traversing the State.  The ruling BSP in UP has contested all 403 seats, SP 402, BJP 398 and RLD 46. Exit polls have predicted a hung assembly in the state with the SP showed as cornering the major chunk of seats.  In the last assembly election, the BSP had won 206 seats and got a majority on its own surprising political pundits. SP had got 97 seats; BJP 50; and RLD, which contested in alliance with BJP, won 10 seats.

There are already talks of ‘post-poll’ alliances determining the route to power !!  Congress circles are voicing the possibility of President rule as well !!

It is reported that  Chief Minister Mayawati called for a emergency cabinet meeting late on Sunday night [4/3/12] in which it was decided to recommend to the UP Governor to dissolve the UP assembly.  The recommendation usually comes after the results of the elections and where the incumbent Chief Minister resigns and the Governor of the state invites the side with the most votes to form the government.  However, it is reported that the  resolution  would  be sent to the Governor on Tuesday, the day results are to be announced in the UP polls.

The Exit polls have placed Mulayam Singh Yadav‘s Samajwadi Party as surging ahead of all others but could lack majority on its own and there are suggestions that Rashtriya Lok Dal headed by Ajit Singh could turn its natural ally.   If that happens, it could be Akhilesh Yadan, presently Lok Sabha Member from Kannuj, son of Mulayam Singh Yadav who could become the CM.  Born in 1973, he holds a degree in Engineering from University of Mysore and Masters in environmental engineering from Sydney.   He is the  party’s UP president  and spearheaded the campaign to bring back Samajwadi Party to power.  Akhilesh's wife, Dimple, unsuccessfully contested the by election for Firozabad Lok Sabha seat in 2009 against actor turned politician Raj Babbar

With regards – S. Sampathkumar.

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