Saturday, October 10, 2020

Covid UK - 'Eat out to Help out' - Algorithm for treatment - positive recovery trend in India

How much Science, Maths would go to treatment of Covid 19 !   One could observe and anguish the cynicism and abject stinging of Western media when it comes to commenting on developing countries [read British media on India] – sad part is many Indian media too would try to ape that !!

The demographics are different – people are different yet the TN Govt,especially the Health Minister Dr C Vijayabaskar is at the forefront fighting the Covid, taking the Govt measures to people. Today on twitter, he is seen inaugurating mobile ration shop for the benefit of the poor.  Recently, the British Govt introduced a novel plan  dubbed “Eat Out to Help Out,” the government paid half of everyone’s restaurant bills up to 10 pounds per meal every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday in August — for all diners, in groups of any size, as often as people wanted, indoors or out. At the time, face masks were not required in most eating establishments. According to Boris Johnson and finance minister Rishi Sunak, the point of the plan was to help save jobs in the restaurant industry.  The public was more than happy to eat on the government’s dime and did so 100 million times between August 3 and 31, at a cost of £522 million (about $694 million), per Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs, the IRS of the UK.

Moving to Covid statistically,  Tamil Nadu recorded 5185 positive cases on Friday (9.10.20), bringing the state tally to 6,46,128. Among these, Chennai reported 1288 positive cases, bringing the city’s total to 1,79,424. The state recorded 68 deaths on Friday, putting the state toll at 10,120. 64 of them had succumbed due to comorbidities.  .. .. Chennai seemingly is cavalier and false bravado in facing Covid !! 

India reported 73,272 coronavirus cases and 926 deaths in the last 24 hours ending 8 am on Saturday, 10.10.20. With this, the total number of infections rose to 69,79,424 including 1,07,416 deaths, 8,83,185 active cases and 59,88,823 recoveries, according to the Union Health Ministry. The recovery rate has risen to 85.81 per cent and the case fatality rate was recorded at 1.54 per cent.



Kerala, the first state to get the novel coronavirus, took four-and-a-half months to record its first 10,000 infections. This Wednesday, it reported more than 10,000 infections in a single day. There was a time Kerala was feted globally for effectively containing the spread of the virus. Over the past few weeks, it has seen more cases every day than any other state barring Maharashtra and Karnataka.

For seven straight days now, the detection of new cases of coronavirus infection in  INDIA  has remained lower than the number of people recovering from the disease. This is the longest unbroken run for this trend so far. The new detections have remained lower than the recoveries on 17 of the last 22 days, resulting in an important reduction in the number of active cases in the country, from a high of 10.17 lakh to less than 8.9 lakh. On Friday, about 73,000 new infections were detected, while nearly 83,000 people were declared to have recovered from the disease.

New cases remaining lower than the recoveries is a very welcome trend, as it might be an indication of the epidemic having peaked, at least when the trend holds for at least a few weeks at a stretch. In the current epidemic, however, it is still too premature to talk about a peak, since the epidemic is nowhere close to having run its course. An epidemic like this can end only if there aren’t enough people left for the virus to infect, or people have been made immune to the virus through vaccination. None of this has happened right now.

          Miles away, in UK, the seven-day rolling average for much of the summer was regularly below 1,000 cases a day, it began increasing in September, and by October 5, the new average had reached 15,505. The counts are complicated by test shortages and changes in the way cases are counted, but it’s clear the country is going through a serious second wave. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to unveil a new three-tier system of measures alongside local regions across the country being handed greater decision-making powers as part of efforts to slow the spread of coronavirus. The new so-called “traffic light” system, to be laid out in the House of Commons on Monday, will see the most severe measures imposed for areas of England fall within the third tier and people being ordered not to have any social contact with anyone outside their household together with the expected closures of pubs, bars and restaurants where some of the highest numbers of cases are occurring.


Statistically, of the 3,68,86,080 global cases 5,75,679 is from United Kingdom – more than the numbers read this newsitem from  MailOnline. Ministers could use an algorithm to help decide which vulnerable people in coronavirus hotspots should stay at home and shield, it emerged today, as the Government admitted the spread of the disease is 'getting out of control'.   The Government is said to be working on a 'tailored shielding' scheme, led by deputy chief medical officer Jenny Harries, which could see hundreds of thousands of people told to avoid others in the coming winter months.  The plan is not yet finalised amid concerns about the impact a return to shielding could have on mental health but The Times said ministers are looking at using an algorithm developed by Oxford University to inform decisions on who should isolate. 

The potential use of an algorithm to come up with shielding guidance is likely to spark concerns after faulty computer modelling led to the A-level results debacle.  It is thought advice for the most vulnerable not to mix with others could be included in the top tier of the Government's new three tier lockdown system which is widely expected to be unveiled on Monday. Boris Johnson's plans would see the country split into three tiers, with the worst hit areas in the north of England placed in the top tier and told to close pubs and restaurants to slow the spread of the disease. 

Pressure on the Government from scientists and opposition politicians is growing after infection rates continued to spike, with 17,540 new cases and 77 deaths reported yesterday.  Skills Minister Gillian Keegan told the BBC's Question Time  : 'This is serious, it is getting out of control and we have to do something to bring it back under control.'  Her stark admission came amid reports that experts on the Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) fear Mr Johnson's planned tier system does not go far enough. According to the Guardian members of SAGE believe ministers should have pulled the trigger on a nationwide 'circuit breaker' lockdown in England two or three weeks ago when it was first discussed. 

Scrutiny of the PM's plans has only increased after Nicola Sturgeon yesterday imposed a two-week alcohol ban inside pubs and restaurants across Scotland, while closing bars entirely in coronavirus hotspots. The prospect of new draconian rules being imposed across England has sparked a Tory backlash, with MPs demanding the Government set out in detail how areas subject to the tightest restrictions will be able to get them lifted.   Ministers have been accused of using flimsy data after they relied on figures based on fewer than 100 pubs to justify the potential closure of tens of thousands of venues across the north of England.  There is also a growing revolt among northern political leaders as Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, promised to challenge new rules 'in any way I can' if the Government closes businesses 'without providing proper compensation'.

There were an average of 17,200 new cases per day of Covid-19 in private households in England between September 25 and October 1, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is up from an estimated 8,400 new cases per day for the period from September 18 to 24. The ONS said there has been a 'marked increase' in the rate of new infections over the last six weeks. The figures do not include people staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.  .. .. .. then how accurate is their statistics !

Statistical inaccuracies, algorithms on whom to be treated – imagine what would be the response of British especially BBC, if such a thing were to happen in India, Pakistan, Srilanka or any other Asian country.

With regards – S. Sampathkumar

10.10.2020.

 

 

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