Monday, June 1, 2020

Covid 19 effect on Chennai, Tamil Nadu & World ! ~ Statistically speaking !


What is your understanding of Covid 19 – the way it has affected people ? – are you in a Red zone or Containment Zone.  Are you seeing / hearing of people known to you, residing closer to you ? How much do you fear ? – how many times you venture out in a week ? – and what does the media news / newspapers convey to you on the spread of Corona virus.  Life is all about spreadsheets, powerpoints, videos and … .. statistics -   Stats is always as blind men see the elephant – the perspective that you see matters !

India is a Nation having States – and many of States have population equivalent to that of many Nations of the World. Here is a map depicting the same.



First the news that you were waiting for or that you perhaps expected to happen. Tamil Nadu government has extended the lockdown in containment zones till June 30, while announcing phased relaxations on several fronts, as announced by the Centre on Saturday.

In a long statement issued on Sunday morning, Chief minister Mr. Edappadi K Palaniswami sought to drive home the need to continue restrictions in containment zones, even while taking steps to facilitate revival of economic activities in towns and rural areas to help people sustain their livelihood. Industries and private enterprises, outside Greater Chennai police limits, can function with 100% employees and workers.

Public transport, including private stage carriers, can operate in most parts of the state, barring Chennai and neighbouring districts, from June 1 with 50% of service being permitted with 60% occupancy. The state has been divided into eight zones for the purpose. Greater Chennai (Zone VIII) and Chengalpet, Kanchipuram and Thiruvallur (Zone VII) will remain off bound for bus transport. Restaurants can open across the state from June 8, but with 50% occupancy BUT,  religious places will remain shut and congregations banned till June 30. Areas coming under Greater Chennai police limits, which have been reporting higher number of Covid positive cases, will continue to remain under lot more restrictions, than other parts of the state. Cabs, taxis, autos and cycle rickshaws can ply in the whole of the state, including Chennai, with restrictions in the number of passengers.

Five months into the global outbreak, the world is racing against time to prepare a vaccine for coronavirus. Trials are underway in laboratories across the world with several companies and governments doubling their efforts to find a permanent cure for the deadly virus. World leaders and organisations  have already pledged $8 billion to research, manufacture and distribute a possible vaccine and treatments for COVID-19 apart from the individual efforts taken by the countries and its pharmaceutical firms.

In Brazil, even with new cases still trending upward and over 465,166 people infected, officials announced that São Paulo, the largest city in South America, would begin to reopen this week.  The German chancellor Angela Merkel announced earlier Saturday that she would not travel to the U.S. for the G7. President Trump told reporters on Saturday that he was postponing a Group of 7 meeting scheduled to be held in the United States next month. Making the announcement while returning from the SpaceX launch in Florida, he said he also planned to invite South Korea, Australia and India to the summit, with an adviser adding that the idea was to bring together traditional allies to discuss China. He said he now wants to hold the meeting in September.

The United States Supreme Court on Friday turned away a request from a church in California to block enforcement of state restrictions on attendance at religious services. The vote was 5 to 4, with Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. joining the court’s four-member liberal wing to form a majority. It was the court’s first attempt to balance the public health crisis against the Constitution’s protection of religious freedom.

President Donald Trump announced Friday that he would withdraw funding from the World Health Organisation, end Hong Kong’s special trade status and suspend visas of Chinese graduate students suspected of conducting research on behalf of their government, escalating tensions with China that have surged during the coronavirus pandemic. Trump has been expressing anger at the World Health Organisation for weeks over what he has portrayed as an inadequate response to the initial outbreak of the coronavirus in China’s Wuhan province late last year.

For the second straight day, the number of daily coronavirus cases in India hit a new high. The states registered 7,964 new cases in last 24 hours. The total number of coronavirus cases in India surged to 173,763. Maharashtra continued to record the highest number of fresh cases in a single day. Several other states including Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Uttarakhand also witnessed a huge spike in daily COVID-19 count.  So that puts India at No.9 in the list of Nations affected, while Tamil Nadu is no. 2 in the list of States – how do you read that ? Statistics again !

There is nothing to be scared of, underlined Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, stressing that the state government is four steps ahead of the coronavirus disease.  The CM also emphasised that the country cannot be in a permanent lockdown. There is a nationwide lockdown, till May 31, in place to halt the spread of the coronavirus disease. In Delhi, coronavirus cases rose to 17,386 today, and there have been 398 deaths. Nationally, Maharashtra accounts for the highest number of coronavirus cases, followed by Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Gujarat. The Delhi government has demanded Rs 5,000 crore assistance from the Centre to be able to pay salaries to its employees, Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia said on Sunday. Sisodia, who also holds the finance department charge, said the Delhi government requires Rs 3,500 crore per month to pay salaries to its employees and to meet other needs.

To most of us it would appear that India is reaching peak in the list of Nations, while Tamilnadu is following up Maharashtra.  Some States including Delhi claim the situation to be in control.  BUT see the statistics in a different perspective – that of no. of people affected / no. of deaths as a % of the total population – you may see the map differently. 

First the World population data extrapolated covid statistics :
Rank
Nation
Affected
Death
Population
Affected%
Death %
1
USA
1816897
105557
330838184
0.549
0.000319
2
Brazil
499966
28849
212430396
0.235
0.000136
3
Russia
405843
4693
145929337
0.278
0.000032
4
Spain
286308
27125
46753295
0.612
0.000580
5
UK
272826
38376
67855909
0.402
0.000566
6
Italy
232664
33340
60469020
0.385
0.000551
7
France
188625
28771
65261548
0.289
0.000441
8
Germany
183294
8600
83761616
0.219
0.000103
9
India
182681
5186
1378826256
0.013
0.000004

In a similar analogy, the statistics of the State in comparison of the population :

State
Covid cases
deaths
Population
% of total
Affected %
Death %







Maharashtra
62228
2098
123144223
9.70%
0.0505
0.0017
Tamil Nadu
20246
154
77841267
5.68%
0.0260
0.0002
Delhi
17386
398
18710922
1.36%
0.0929
0.0021
Gujarat
15394
980
63872399
5.68%
0.0241
0.0015
Rajasthan
8365
184
81032689
5.93%
0.0103
0.0002



1378826256




As regards migrants and the way they are handled, you would have heard of Schengen area – comprising of   26 European states that have officially abolished all passport and all other types of border control at their mutual borders. The area mostly functions as a single jurisdiction for international travel purposes, with a common visa policy. The area is named after the 1985 Schengen Agreement signed in Schengen, Luxembourg.  For people living across the continent, the sudden closure of borders came as a shock and fundamentally reordered life for millions who came of age in an era defined by frictionless travel.

Covid 19 for sure has affected the World.  Before concluding even Chennai cannot be looked in totality.  Chennai city has 13980 people affected – it is divided into 15 zones of which 6 zones have nos. more than 1000 contributing to more than 71% of the cases; the rest of 9 zones put together are 29%.  Zone 5 Royapuram tops with 2589; 10 Kodambakkam has 1709; 9 Teynampet has 1557;4 Tondiarpet 1536;  6 Thiru Vi Ka Nagar 1494; Anna Nagar 1180.

So, in lockdown 5.0 – remain at home, do not venture out unless most essential, keep social distance, wash your hands and be safe !

With regards – S. Sampathkumar
31.5.2020

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