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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Law of Average ! and CSK out of CLT20 2011

Insurance is the law of large numbers – a theory that describes that the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times.  The average of the results obtainable from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value and will tend to become more closer when more trials are performed.  The higher the numbers, the greater is possibility of exactitude !  Insurance is pooling and sharing of risks on the premise that though not a certainty to an individual could yet be certain for the Society.  

This average is far different from the law of averages which is based on probabilities as numbers between zero and one – i.e., one of the result is a certainty – the non occurrence or half of it would never happen. Simple example is tossing of a coin.  When a coin is tossed there would only be a head or a tail – don’t think of the possibility of coin not falling down at all (no head or tail) or coin standing vertically (both head and tail !)  - when it falls, it has to be a head or a tail.  When you toss a coin ten times, it need be 5 times head and 5 times tail…. – though that is also a possibility. 

They are described in fractions that is say 5times out of 10 or 11 times out of hundred or 37 times out of thousand and so on.  There is one vital trait here – probabilities do not tell what is going to happen, they merely indicate what is likely to happen. The result could be still farther from the actual.    

The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event will "even out" within a small sample.  This law may not be a statistician’s delight – it is simply saying that since it fell tails 5 times, the 6th time, it is most likely to be a head; as it cannot be falling tails all the time and hence most probably it would be a heads on the 6th instance.  This is how a gambler approaches things – may be aptly described as Gambler’s fallacy !  If you observe, a good gambler is likely to bet on a horse not so highly rated and away from a horse which has been regularly winning.  For an analyst, the favourite is likely to succeed, for a gambler, the Blackhorse is likely to win one day and this could be today !!

The gambler’s bet might succeed in short term, but in long term the law of large numbers is most  likely to even out and tend to get closer to the expected value..  

It was perhaps waiting to happen – so ripened …  from the top of the World coming down cracking  !!  - law of average or a certainty of failure or fate or short term success  -  whatever it be – don’t discount him or write him away…. He is bound to come back with vengeance and only that will augur well for the Nation’s cricket. He was a price catch when India A toured Kenya in 2004 where he shone as a rookie especially with performace against Pak A in a tri-nation series.  

Mahendra Singh Dhoni has come a long way from Ranchi  - only this year he led the Nation to a win in ODI World Cup 2011, followed it up with a title triumph in IPL 4….. but all the good work and appreciations seemingly have gone astray with India’s dismal showing in England and now the failure to qualify in CL T20 2011.    Yesterday, Chepauk was painted yellow with fans wanting a big win for CSK to qualify for the semis but it went the other way – NSW crushed them with a 46 run defeat showing them the door.   First CSK bore the brunt of the brutality of David Warner – 135 off a mere 69 ! – then the chase was never on !  Chasing an imposing 201/2, required to win in 17 overs Chennai Super Kings mustered only 155 before bowled out in a ball less than 19 overs.  

The tournament was expected to soothe the Indian cricket fan.. after the thrashing in England, players were expected to do well at Indian tracks and Dhoni was expected to be back to his winning ways, which he admirably has done for a such a lengthier time.  CSK was indeed a well balanced team, which had earlier won IPL and Champions Leageue but now they are out of the tournament, not able to reach the semi finals even !  The crowd at Chepauk was aghast – from no defeat at their home ground to a shocking defeat showing them the door, they have seen them all.  Apart from the foreign hands, the Indians (Murali Vijay, Raina, Badri,  Dhoni) had been very consistent but not this time – and their bowlers bowled badly – and everyone including the bowler Ravichandran Ashwin were bemused and bewildered by the switch hits of Warner – the earlier hero Doug  Bollinger was looted for 48 in three overs.

This time in CL T20 2011, CSK had put up less than ordinary show.  MI snatched a victory with Malinga’s lusty hits in the ends.  They lost a low scoring match to T&T and yesterday Warner took the game entirely away.    May be it was fatigue, may be it was law of averages or simply other teams out performing this local team.  From the England Tour, everything is going wrong
--- and law of averages were to operate, things have gone from bad to worse and they cannot worsen any longer……… a dip in fortunes must come in to play and India (and Dhoni) should be back to their winning ways.  That happening during the present ODI series against England would do a World of good for the Cricket crazy Nation.  

With regards – S. Sampathkumar.

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