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Thursday, May 19, 2016

Who will win ? - TN Elections - State waits to know !!

It has been raining in Chennai and most  parts of Tamil Nadu.  Chennai has witnessed record rains over the last 48 hours – now reports suggest that the cyclone bypassed the Indian coast and moved towards Bangladesh.  With memories of the December floods in the city still fresh, the civic authorities have started massive emergency preparations. People in the city are visibly shaken and many expressed fears of great trouble, if there were to be continued downpours.
Voters – photo credit : Rajagopalan Madhavan

Away, it rained in Bangalore too – and when it stopped restricting the match to 15 overs, it could not prevent Virat Kohli scripting  yet another magnificent century to power Royal Challengers Bangalore to a dominating 82-run win over bottom-placed Kings XI Punjab via Duckworth Lewis method.  Virat Kohli has been vaulting the standard for T20 batting this season.  Not even the apprehensions of having to bat with nine stitches on his left hand because of a split webbing could stop him from scoring his fourth century in his last nine innings.  Kohli (113 off 50 balls) battled immense physical pain to notch up his fourth century in the ongoing IPL season and also became the only batsman to score more than 800 runs in a single edition. His tally stands at 865 runs from 13 matches. 4002 Runs for Virat Kohli in his IPL career becoming the first batsman to complete 4000 runs in the IPL, going past Suresh Raina's tally of 3985. Before the start of the season, Kohli was fourth on the list. Chasing a mammoth 212 to win, none of the Kings XI batsmen could stitch a partnership as the pressure to hit big shots saw them make their back way to the hut.

Psephology, (from Greek psephos  'pebble', which the Greeks used as ballots) is a branch of political science which deals with the study and scientific analysis of elections. Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data.  To me, the first hint of predicting a poll from previous results and great election analysis came from Prannay Roy, a couple of decades ago. Life has changed much … now there are so many exit polls, some doctored too !

Exit polls are divided over the results of this state. NewsNation and the Axis-My India exit polls predict that the DMK will win the state, thereby ending the reign of Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK. However, C-Voter claims that Amma’s party will retain power in the state.  In 2011, during the last elections in the State, the surveys vastly differed.  The CNN-IBN-CSDS survey had "projected an edge" for the AIADMK-led alliance in the 2011 polls, according to The Hindu report. Another 2011 report in The Times of India had said that the CVoter exit poll was the only one to suggest that the J Jayalalithaa-led alliance will get a decisive mandate and win between 168 and 176 seats. The report added that the ORG poll for Headlines Today had predicted a slim majority for the DMK.  In the end, the  AIADMK-led alliance won a staggering number of 203 seats in the 234-seat Assembly. The surveys did not turn out to be very accurate for Tamil Nadu as theCVoter exit poll was the only one which got close to the decisive mandate which Jayalalithaa got. 

If Jayalalithaa manages to win a second-term to power and beat anti-incumbency, she will become the first Chief Minister to win two consecutive elections since 1984. Whether and how much of a toe-fold the saffron party could gain in Tamilnadu Assembly in 2016 is also awaited to be seen.

Away there is another bout – this time to the Court.  Sushil Kumar's fight for an Olympic berth suffered another blow on Wednesday with the Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) strongly hinting that they would prefer Narsingh Yadav for the Rio Olympics by insisting on not having a trial given the quota winner's "consistent performances". Following the Delhi High Court directive, a special WFI committee, formed on the instruction of the court, held a meeting with the two-time Olympic medallist on Wednesday, to sort out as to who between Sushil and Narsingh would represent India in the men's 74kg freestyle category at the mega-event in August.

"Sushil has put forward his views before the committee and has maintained what he has been saying since the very beginning that he should get a chance to undergo a trial," WFI president Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh told reporters in New Delhi. "We have told him that 'you have put Indian wrestling on a pedestal and we cannot ignore your contribution and we all respect you'. But on the other hand, there is another wrestler who has brought the Olympic quota and also has been giving consistent performances. So, can we be unfair to him also?," Brij Bhushan added. Asked what if the High Court, during its next hearing on 27 May, instructs the Federation to take a final call, Brij Bhushan said, "The Federation has taken its decision."

For now, Tamil Nadu waits with bated breathe – for the results.

With regards – S. Sampathkumar.
19th May 2016.



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